Holiday Shipping: Will Your Parcels be Picked Up and Delivered on Time?

Days after “Black Friday” UPS put holiday shipping restrictions on Nike and Gap and directed drivers to stop Cyber Monday pick-ups at other large retailers that are already exceeding parcel volume forecasts through booming online sales.  

In a year marked by a pandemic-driven shift in consumer buying habits that has driven consecutive quarters of record e-commerce growth, parcel networks have been at or near capacity for months. An unprecedented holiday peak has been on the radar, but as expected, early promotions and efforts to bring parcel volume forward could never be enough.

And in the midst of a monumental peak period, the parcel carriers continue to adjust their strategy to not only drive revenue growth in high demand e-commerce service areas, but also protect volume and achieve competitive advantage as Amazon’s delivery networks continue to evolve. 

Let’s look at some of the latest developments in the parcel shipping environment. They may affect your ability to delight customers this holiday season.

E-Commerce Bloats Holiday Shipping Volume Beyond Capacity

Demand for the 2020 holiday peak shipping season is forecast to exceed 86 million packages a day – about 7 million packages outside current parcel network capacity. These estimates are validated by the National Retail Federation’s estimate that online shopping increased 44 percent during a five-day stretch that included Black Friday and Cyber Monday. 

Both UPS and FedEx prepared retail shippers for tight holiday shipping capacity, issuing advice for holiday shippers and encouraging clients to “shop earlier than ever with special offers or other incentives.” Yet, before December even dawned, both carriers were enforcing volume agreements and applying peak season charges and accessorial fees that create additional order fulfillment cost for shippers. 

In this environment it is critical that you have real-time understanding of your parcel shipping activity. While volume outside agreed-upon levels or historical averages may result in added cost during other parts of the year (as it did with COVID peak surcharges), packages exceeding a shipper’s determined space simply will not be served – at least until additional capacity becomes available.

Shipping Delays: Expect, Forewarn and Facilitate

Based on the recent trends observed, the average package delay rate during the 2020 holiday season may range between 14 percent and 18 percent. Consumers in densely populated cities can expect delays as high as 25 percent to 30 percent. 

Unless you create an expectation of delayed delivery, this can be a real problem for customer experience. Proactive communication with your customers about anticipated delays is one of the most important steps in preserving holiday shipping experience.  Use your website and email communications to help set expectations. 

That said, as consumers’ expectations on speed evolve, we are seeing an increased willingness to wait for a delivery, especially if it means free shipping. According to BoxPoll, more than half of consumers opting for free shipping (57 percent) considered five-day delivery to be “fast” – that’s up 8 percentage points compared to last year. One-third of respondents in the weekly survey said that seven-day delivery is “acceptable” at minimum.

Retailers are positioned to capitalize when they maintain awareness of shipping characteristics, alternative service models and, of course, their customers’ expectations. A “no-rush” option is a familiar part of the Amazon order process, and now other brands are following suit, even offering incentives for delayed or “slow service.” If a consumer considers five-day service “fast,” are you driving up cost by offering more service then they need?

FedEx Counters Amazon’s E-Commerce and Logistics Buildout

The FedEx acquisition of ShopRunner complements the actions that we have seen FedEx taking to remain relevant in e-commerce as Amazon continues to strengthen its logistics and fulfillment capabilities.  

The move reinforces the FedEx position as the anti-Amazon solution for companies seeking an Amazon alternative. Some of the carrier’s other recent activity following the same strategy includes:

  • Acquisition of GENCO to form the basis of Fulfillment by FedEx
  • Moving to a seven-day-a-week delivery schedule
  • Severing ties with Amazon for delivery to focus on other e-commerce volume
  • Pulling SmartPost deliveries into the Home Delivery network to bolster density and profitability.

With the global parcel market positioned to more than double by 2026, fueled by e-commerce growth and further accelerated by COVID-19, both FedEx and UPS will need to continue adding value to retailers’ unichannel solutions to keep volume when Amazon opens their delivery network to third party shipments. Amazon suspended its delivery service earlier this year due to the pandemic, but it is expected to reopen in the near future.

Of course, the parcel carriers are among an ever-growing contingent of organizations devising new strategies to compete with Amazon. Just in time for the holidays, WalMart is dropping the $35 minimum on free shipping for e-commerce purchases of electronics, toys and clothing made for participants in its WalMart+ membership program. The move – and the program – are both designed to compete with Amazon Prime.

Are You Positioned to Compete?

Make sure your holiday shipping success is not eclipsed by transportation costs.

Can you quickly determine how your parcel shipping volume falls within your capacity agreement with your carriers? Do you know how quickly your customers are getting their orders – and whether you are meeting your delivery commitments? Can you determine which SKUs are making money – and which are not?

Ongoing awareness of evolving trends in the parcel environment – from service disruptions to capacity shortages – is integral to your ability to pivot your small package shipping strategy. 

Understanding how those trends affect your transportation cost and service to end customers requires expert analysis and actionable intelligence. The latest enhancements to our technology platform puts the power of that information at your fingertips with best-in-class visualization of data gathered across your entire supply chain.

Schedule a demonstration today to see how our clients are able to identify business trends, understand the impact of cost and service on working capital, and recognize ongoing performance improvement opportunities.

2021 Parcel Rates: 3 Areas for Attention

The average rate increase for primary services provided by UPS and FedEx mirrors that same familiar 4.9 percent increase that we have seen for many years. 

And just as we have seen for many years, the 2021 parcel rates increase announcements are just a visible layer in the carriers’ rate and service pricing structures. With multiple layers, the complex pricing and surcharge practices of UPS and FedEx can make it difficult to determine the true cost for your small package shipments. 

Beyond the average increase on standard services, it is also important to recognize that surcharges, accessorials, new fees and tweaks to the carriers’ terms and conditions could require you to budget a 2021 cost increase closer to 8.5 percent. Capacity pressures created by exponential e-commerce growth during the pandemic and uncertainty about mid-year or peak surcharges for 2021 creates an environment of unknowns.

You need to understand how your shipment characteristics align with carrier networks. If you are a large shipper with a great contract, be prepared to defend that as tight capacity drives renegotiation motives for UPS and FedEx. Your parcel partner can be a real asset during this time if they have the ability to analyze your historic performance and determine areas for future cost savings that do not jeopardize performance. 

Let’s explore three aspects of this year’s parcel rate increase that could drive new costs in your transportation budget. 

  • Expanded ZIP Codes for Delivery Area Surcharge 

More ZIP codes than ever before will be eligible for Delivery Area Surcharges (DAS) for both UPS and FedEx. Both carriers adjust the applicable ZIP codes every year, but the past two years have reflected significant changes. In 2021, these charges will apply to almost 38 percent of the United States.

The increase for UPS DAS areas will apply to almost 12.3 million people, while the FedEx changes will affect about 11 million people. Ultimately, that means you are facing an additional surcharge for more of your customers. 

This is a difficult adjustment to calculate on your own, but when that much of your customer-base is affected by new costs, deep analysis is required to determine how these changes will impact your budget in 2021.

We talked more about the changes around DAS during our recent parcel rates webinar. Watch the replay for more insight on the how and the why behind this move by the carriers. 

  • Additional Handling Charges for Large Parcels and More to Come

    If your packages measure over 105 inches in length and girth combined, you will be charged an Additional Handling Fee of $16. This dimension change on the fee targets packages that barely miss the Oversize criteria of 130 inches (L and W combined). It applies to packages that take up a lot of space on conveyor belts, but do not get charged high dimensional weight.  

    Parcel carriers are becoming increasingly selective about the packages that move through their automated networks. Large packages, in certain instances, can cause significant problems in an automated facility. Moving them often requires more work from human resources, a costly and time-consuming element. 

    Beyond this $16 charge, UPS is also implementing a new structure for additional handling and large package rates that will differ by zone. Those rates will be announced at a later date, April 11, 2021 for non-hundred-weight packages and July 11, 2021 for hundredweight packages. 

    For heavy retail customers that are not clothing-oriented, this change could create a significant impact. We work with clients to identify specific impacts and solutions to mitigate the added cost.
  • Lightweight 2021 Parcel Rates Face Steepest Increases

    It is important to understand that when the carriers have a rate increase, it is not a universal rate increase across all weights and zones. The average rate increase is 4.9 percent. The level of rate increase for your volume depends on your shipping characteristics. For many shippers a larger percentage of their packages qualify for minimum charges, especially larger shippers with more aggressive pricing. 

    This year, parcel shippers charged at the zone 2, 1-pound minimum will face a steeper increase – about 6.4 percent – than their counterparts in other weight and zone combinations. Likewise, UPS and FedEx rates match between 1 and 15 pounds, and for these lightweight shipments the increases are generally higher than those for heavier packages. 

This strategy of larger increases on lightweight packages is an abrupt change for UPS and FedEx. Two factors likely affect the decision:

  • Competition from Priority Mail: Last year (before COVID-19), FedEx and UPS were both concerned with competition from Priority Mail. Lightweight Priority Mail rates are significantly lower than UPS and FedEx Ground rates, especially to residential addresses. Heading into 2021 with the parcel industry at capacity, there is less concern on competitiveness and more emphasis on profitability.’
  • Profitability: Lightweight packages are typically less profitable for small package carriers than heavier weight packages. Carriers are likely to continue to increase lightweight packages at higher levels as long as there are capacity constraints. Regional carriers can offer an efficient alternative in some of your lightweight shipping scenarios. In light of capacity challenges and other disruptions during 2020, many of these operations have filled a niche and grown. These carriers can sometimes be easier to implement, and they don’t often bring the surcharges the national carriers apply.

    During our Parcel Rates Roundtable we share tips for leveraging regional carriers as part of your parcel program. Watch the webinar to make sure that type of move does not drive up cost with your national carrier due to your tier commitments.

Parcel Bills: Do Not Pay Late

Another area for attention: when its GRI takes effect Jan. 4, 2021, FedEx will begin applying a 6 percent late payment fee. UPS implemented this fee in 2004, and this gives FedEx customers cause to pay close attention to the payment terms in their contracts. 

Not paying your bills on time now becomes a more financially impactful decision, and these fees can add because they apply at the invoice level.

Master Your Parcel Plan, Minimize Rate Impact. 

Do you have your finger on the pulse of your parcel program so you can understand the true cost impact of the 2021 annual General Rate Increase across your end-to-end supply chain?

Questions to consider:

  • How do your contract terms and conditions address volume caps?
  • How will volume caps affect your actual rate increase, surcharges and other fees?
  • How does your customer base change now that more than 11 million people have been added to the DAS delivery charge?
  • How do you budget for these changes?

Open our Parcel Rate Outlook 2021 for our expert support in preparing a plan that carefully considers these questions – and all changes across the parcel environment. Leveraging deep parcel expertise, tools and technology, we’re able to provide rate impact analysis specific to your personal needs and design a business solution that controls cost and protects experience.

Get our Parcel Rate Outlook 2021 today and make sure your 2021 transportation budget considers the nuances lurking in the layers below the 4.9 percent average rate increase.

The Bullwhip Effect: Managing Swings in Demand

To define the “Bullwhip Effect” in supply chain management, it is a term describing a phenomenon that quickly turns otherwise accurate forecasts into outdated information, amplifying misinformation along the supply chain. The dust was brushed off this broad concept, and it returned to the shelves not long after COVID-19 began disrupting global supply chains.

“Supply chains allow companies to focus on their specific processes to maintain maximum probability,” Osmond Vitez writes in The Bullwhip Effect in Supply Chain. “Unfortunately, supply chains may stumble when market conditions change and consumer demand shifts.”

That’s exactly what happened when an abrupt change in customer demand plus factory shutdowns put companies in the tight spot of having to forecast demand in the middle of an unprecedented, worldwide pandemic.

With demand for certain items amplified, the tiniest crack of the bullwhip’s handle caused an uncontrolled, snapping motion at the tip of that whip.

Balancing Demand Effects and Inventory Management

“When major swings in inventory occur from panic buying and hoarding, the impact of this sudden demand is magnified as it moves upstream in the supply chain (similar to the way a bullwhip’s thong amplifies in a wave as it moves away from the handle),” Jenny Reese explains in “Preparing for COVID-19 and the bullwhip effect: What happens to the supply chain when you buy 100 rolls of toilet paper?” The customer feels the anxiety of empty aisles, the retailer loses sales, and customer service suffers. “Distributors are left scrambling to determine who should get how much of a given product in a shortage,” Reese continues, “and manufacturers are overwhelmed with sudden, unanticipated spikes in demand.”

With little or no visibility into demand patterns to lean on, many companies wind up flying blind and hoping for the best.

How Does the Bullwhip Effect Work?

Without accurate, accessible, and strong communication across the various partners in the supply chain, the bullwhip effect in supply chains can disrupt any business environment. In a supply chain made up of a factory, a distributor/wholesaler, retailer, and end customer, for example, the retailer and customer tend to be closely aligned. For instance, a customer places an order and a retailer reacts accordingly.

Continue further up that supply chain, however, and that alignment begins to diminish.

Manufacturers don’t always align their forecasts with retailers’ own projections and distributors are, frequently, caught in the middle of two entities that have zero communication with one another.

These gaps widen during events like COVID-19, with even a small variance creating a Bullwhip Effect. In fact, Jay Forrester, who first conceptualized the Bullwhip Effect in these terms, says that even a 10 percent change at either end of the supply chain can result in a 40 percent fluctuation in the middle. That’s when the wheels fall off the cart; all players in the supply chain make quick adjustments to compensate for the problem.

Why Should You Care?

Virtually every organization must address or, at least be aware of, the Bullwhip Effect. Without up-to-date and wide supply chain communication, companies risk having it adversely impact their operations and their customers. Since no organization is an island, even the most vertically-integrated companies should know the signs of the Bullwhip Effect and how to deal with it effectively.

It’s easy to recognize the Bullwhip Effect in retrospect, as customers are cancelling or returning orders that they were clamoring to buy because they bought too much, overestimating their need. In order to meet perceived demands, erratic production, excessive inventory and depletion of resources highlight this effect. During COVID 19, suppliers most at-risk from the Bullwhip Effect included makers and distributors of PPE, hand sanitizer, toilet paper, and other hard-to-find items.

As a Supply chain professional you’ve been exposed to the Bullwhip Effect. The costly consequences materialize quickly and immediately erode your profitability.

Are you able to make informed decisions based on real time data?

Transportation Insight allows your business to make evidence-based decisions. We amass data about your supply chain to give you a comprehensive understanding of your logistics network. Our expertise and tools enable contingency planning through “what if scenarios” that address the Bullwhip Effect before it impacts your bottom line. Transportation Insight monitors multiple key performance indicators that measure your business activity and reveal threats and opportunities to drive continuous optimization of your supply chain.

Tame the Bullwhip: Manage the Demand Waves

We offer more context around the Bullwhip Effect in our Supply Chain Masters Digital Event. Watch the webinar today and learn how you can manage demand fluctuations with a responsive supply chain management system:

  • Best practices for collecting, retaining and analyzing supply chain data.
  • Processes that encourage scalability and readinesss for decline, recovery and even growth.

Learn the supply chain strategies that minimize risk and protect your profitability today and tomorrow.

BOPIS: Retail in Evolution

Smartphone connectivity is driving more online shopping and a BOPIS retail revolution for consumers who enjoy the convenience of buy-online-pick-up in store.

Yet, the store remains a core focus of the buying experience. That’s how it should be. The in-store customer is typically more loyal and tends to buy more than the online shopper.

A robust strategy for “Buy Online, Pick Up In Store,” or BOPIS, can offer the best of both worlds. BOPIS expands a retailer’s online exposure while preserving and deepening the in-store experience. In fact, retailers find that is common for shoppers to buy more product once they arrive at the store to retrieve their online orders. 

A well-designed BOPIS retail program also helps reduce delivery costs because the customer is going to the product, not vice-versa. Consumers prize the ease and convenience of the transaction, especially when the COVID-19 pandemic has made contactless interactions more of the rule than the exception.

Responding to a New Retail Landscape

For retailers with limited resources and insufficient time spent mastering alternate fulfillment methods, the real world suddenly became a very different place in 2020. Many have been challenged to adjust to an unfamiliar “fractured fulfillment” model where products are ordered, fulfilled, and distributed from anywhere to anywhere. It is difficult for retailers to strike the right balance of inventory levels that satisfy in-store shoppers and ensure product availability to support online channel growth.

Retailers often over-order store inventory to avoid the risk of stock-outs. This raises carrying costs, and shrinks inventory  available to allocate to online channels. 

Moving ahead with an ill-vetted BOPIS strategy can make things worse. Customers assured of a product’s in-stock status on a retailer’s website will be displeased if they take time to visit the store only to find the item isn’t available. This could damage a brand’s reputation, especially if word spreads quickly on social media.

Visibility is the pain point. Many retailers lack proper visibility into the inventory flow from their partners to effectively plan and execute an error-proof BOPIS strategy. Without visibility, retailers will continue to prioritize avoidance in-store stock-out scenarios, and will continue to absorb excess and costly inventory.

A strong 3PL provider arms retailers with superior, actionable data that improves inventory visibility without forcing them to increase levels of safety stock. The endgame is to manage appropriate safety stock thresholds for both in-store and BOPIS experiences so the customer is satisfied in either scenario. 

Personalized Solutions Require Visibility

Each retailer is unique, and each shipper-retailer partnership is unique. Working with good data, an experienced 3PL partner creates customized plans to achieve optimal results. Progress and outcomes are constantly measured and refined so fill rates achieve acceptable thresholds. Changes to the plan can be implemented quickly should circumstances change – and they often do. 

For example, a plan could require the partners to issue electronic order acknowledgements indicating changes to item quantities and arrival dates within a specified time of receiving an order. It could call for transmission of advance ship notices within two hours of a shipment’s departure so visibility is optimized. Fully leveraging distribution center connections to stores optimizes shipping flexibility to react quickly to customer behavior. 

It is still most profitable for stores when customers pick up their orders in-store, but the busy holiday season could make it difficult for consumers to get to the store. Data generated by zip codes can identify areas of strong online ordering and in-store activity. This offers retailers insight into how to best position inventory for timely and accurate distribution.

For example, a retailer wants to offer one- to two-day deliveries but its transportation providers are challenged to consistently hit those targets. It may be more feasible to ship that order out from a store versus a fulfillment center. This could require shippers to invest in a drop-shipping strategy to support an e-commerce strategy where goods are brought directly to the store level. All this strategy is grounded in visibility.

This holiday season will be like no other. In-store buying will still be prevalent. However, more consumers have adopted online ordering after being required to do so in the early days of the pandemic. BOPIS utilization will be strong this holiday, but it will continue long after peak season and even after the virus passes. Consumers want options. It is critical for retailers to comply, but to do so efficiently.

Master Your BOPIS Retail Revolution

The last-mile puzzle piece proves to be most challenging for many shippers connecting transportation and retail customer service.

The last mile is the most complex part of e-commerce fulfillment. It is also the most important. The last mile makes or breaks everything that came before it. That final delivery is the moment your customer will remember your brand most. How well do you finish?

A BOPIS strategy is just one of several last-mile offerings that shippers and retailers are expected to deliver. Done right, it reaps brand loyalty, lower costs and profitable opportunities for new market share. However, it requires a specialized level of resources and knowledge. It also requires skills and vigilance to ensure flawless execution.

We created The BOPIS Revolution: Navigating the New Never Normal to highlight some of the things you need to keep in mind when approaching – or modifying – your BOPIS strategy. Watch our SME Roundtable for a deeper dive into the ways we drive top line revenue results through personalized solutions driven by technology and expertise.

To continue the conversation, reach out to one of our supply chain experts. Let’s talk about how we can help you evolve solutions that support final delivery strategies to control cost and consistently wow your customers.

BOPIS: What Does It Mean for Shippers?

Buy-online-pickup-in-store, or BOPIS, has turned desktop computers and mobile phones into digital shopping carts.

Linearity is on the way out. So is the shipper’s control of the supply chain. E-commerce has spawned the “omni-channel fulfillment” model where orders, distribution and deliveries occur from anywhere, anyone, and at any time. The traditional supply-push scenario with shippers calling the shots is giving way to a demand-pull approach with consumers in control of the transaction.

The “Buy Online, Pick Up In Store” (BOPIS) concept has become a key part of the asymmetrical, demand-pull world we live and work in. Who ever imagined a consumer ordering an item on an electronic device, having a retailer immediately pick and pack the product at one of multiple locations, and having it ready for the consumer’s arrival at a pre-arranged time, typically within a few hours and sometimes under an hour? 

Experience Depends on BOPIS Excellence

The COVID-19 pandemic is driving BOPIS toward mainstream adoption. Contactless interactions remain the order of the day – especially during the holiday season as health-conscious consumers continue to minimize time spent shopping in confined spaces. But BOPIS and other alternate fulfillment practices will outlast the pandemic. They will become permanent additions to the logistics landscape.

To execute an effective BOPIS strategy, shippers must understand retailers’ two overarching objectives: 

  • Ensure a seamless customer experience regardless of the order touchpoint.
  • Maintain adequate in-store inventory while expanding digital buying opportunities.

It is essential for retailers to have the right goods always available, and at the right place at the right time for the consumer. The “right time” could involve shipping to a residence or to another physical location. It could mean an in-person brick-and-mortar sale. It could mean BOPIS, or its first cousin, “Buy Online Pick Up at Curbside” (BOPAC). It could be a drop-shipping model where the shipper delivers directly to the store, thus minimizing the need to hold inventory in a space-constrained facility.

Striking the correct balance between in-store and digital inventory is just as critical. In-store customers are typically more loyal and buy more per visit than online customers. Retailers are loath to broaden their digital channels if doing so threatens to siphon off in-store activity.

Allowing both scenarios to thrive requires elevating visibility and analytics tools to new heights. A clear line of sight across the ecosystem allows shippers to align production with the retailer’s current replenishment needs. Analytics like Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence also provide shippers with vital clues about consumers’ future buying habits so they and their retailer partners can stay a step ahead.

Technology is only as productive as the knowledge of the people managing it. Seasoned third-party logistics specialists understand how to design and implement a consistently successful BOPIS program that leverages cost-effective automation. They have worked extensively with all stakeholders, and can quickly adjust the go-to-market processes to optimize outcomes and avoid costly missteps.

Final Delivery Drives Loyalty or Brand Damage

If your customer's purchase isn't ready for the promised, rapid in-store fulfillment, your BOPIS strategy could have a negative result.

Online fulfillment is a fast-paced, often-unforgiving business. You are only as good as your last delivery. The margin for error narrows still further in a BOPIS transaction. Failing to execute an order after the consumer was assured the product was in stock and went out of their way to retrieve it is a breach of the “trust covenant” between the stakeholders. A BOPIS-related stock-out can seriously damage both brands, especially if a negative review spreads on social media.

The good news for shippers is that mastering this intense pivot point should result in enduring brand loyalty from consumer and retailer alike. Consumers prize convenience, and will favor retailers who make the BOPIS experience as easy as “pulling up and popping the trunk.” This goodwill extends to the products they pick up and take home.

Retailers, meanwhile, know how complicated it is to make life easy for today’s consumer.  Shippers who consistently execute will become sticky to the retailer. Product quality is obviously important. However, consumers often cannot discern between the nuances of multiple products of similar craftsmanship. What they do know, and will remember, is how, when and where they received their product. Or why they didn’t. That is how your brand will be remembered. In today’s world, logistics, more than any part of a shipper’s business, is becoming the competitive differentiator.

Navigate the New “Never Normal”

Planned properly, the BOPIS fulfillment model is a valuable tool in the highly competitive e-commerce space. 

The devil is in the execution.

Transportation Insight specializes in designing and executing supply chain strategy adjustments that empower you to provide the final mile delivery options required to wow end customers.

We created “The BOPIS Revolution: Navigating the New Never Normal” to offer insight into the many variables involved in meeting consumers’ evolving demands for service. Read it today to understand the strategies that we can help you leverage to enhance customer service, grow market share and increase competitive advantage.

Last Days to Ship? 7 Tips to Meet Holiday Deadlines

According to MarketWatch, Deloitte is forecasting a 1% to 1.5% year-over-year sales increase for the upcoming holiday season, during which time total retail sales will be about $1.15 billion (between November 2020 and January 2021). Meeting holiday shipping deadlines will be more important than ever.

“E-commerce sales, which have been strong throughout the coronavirus pandemic, are expected to climb 25% to 35%, reaching $182 billion and $196 billion,” Deloitte predicts. “Regardless of the scenario, however, consumers’ focus on health, financial concerns, and safety will result in a shift in the way they spend their holiday budget.”  

Here are seven tips for making sure your holiday packages get to their destinations on time.

7 Tips for Holiday Delivery Success 

The new realities of the current shipping environment have created ongoing service delays and disruptions, both of which have compounded into an overall capacity crunch for small parcel carriers. Working through this issue will require forward-thinking companies to adjust accordingly.

For example, shippers will need to be more creative and flexible to cope with the combination of COVID and the normal peak season. FedEx, UPS, and other carriers are hiring a lot more workers for the season, but we still expect to see some capacity issues. With the uncertainty, it will be more important than ever to inform customers when to expect shipments and be extremely transparent. 

Here are seven tips that will help you get your packages to their destinations on time: 

  1. Know the cutoff dates. FedEx’s last days to ship calendar is online here and UPS publishes its holiday deadlines here. The USPS plans to release its cutoff dates for holiday shipping sometime in October. Be sure to factor in these last days to ship dates when planning your holiday shipments. 
  2. Talk to your carriers. Proactively communicate with carriers regarding any expected increase in volume and any additional equipment requirements (e.g., feeders or bulk-type pickups). This will help your carriers plan ahead and provide some assurance that there will be capacity to accommodate your volume spikes (or, allow you to make alternative arrangements). 
  3. Next, talk to your customers. Companies should proactively communicate anticipated delays and properly set customer’s expectations on their websites and in any email communications. This could be as simple as featuring the holiday cutoff shipment dates prominently on the first page of your website. 
  4. Know the limits. Shippers should clearly understand any potential volume limits or caps that may be put in place by the carriers. Because these constraints can impact your ability to deliver on time, be sure to discuss them with your carrier. 
  5. Explore your options. Shippers should also understand their carrier options and negotiate favorable agreement terms to properly leverage all national, regional, and postal carriers. Having a “Plan B” in place is always a good idea during the busiest times of the year. 

  1. Start your product promos early. Don’t wait until the last minute to kick off your holiday promotions. Starting early will help you pull volume forward to avoid peak shipping periods and allow time for expected delays. 
  2. Factor in holiday business schedules. For example, USPS is closed for all of the major federal holidays. With delivery times varying between its services, knowing the cutoff dates and hours of operation are both important. 

Maintaining Transparency  

Reflecting on how parcel carriers performed for the 2019-20 holiday shipping season, UPS’ SurePost and FedEx’s SmartPost both assured 100% delivery for holiday orders that were shipped on or before December 14 or 9 (respectively). However, we also saw that as the cutoff date approached, those commitments slipped. This is something to keep in mind as you lay out your plans for the 2020-21 season. 

Using the tips outlined in this article, you can strike a nice balance between growing your company’s holiday sales while also letting customers know that there is a risk of passing the carrier’s “suggested date” for accepting pickup for a Christmas delivery. Through full transparency and good information, you can effectively manage customer expectations while also syncing with the carriers that will deliver the goods to their doorsteps.  

Peak Season Performance Requires Visibility

To make sure holiday shippers are aware of the latest trends affecting their transportation cost management, we convened a roundtable of our parcel experts. Watch or listen to our webinar “Peak Season: Are You Ready?” to hear Todd Benge, Robyn Meyer, Toni Caputo, Bernie Reeb and myself address the unprecedented challenges emerging his year.

This digital event shares strategies to help you protect profit and enhance customer experience. Watch it today to make sure you are getting charged correctly and manage the capacity risks that threaten to derail your performance.

Manage Surcharges: 4 Things to Know for Holiday Season

Less predictable, peak surcharges are creating additional complexity for parcel pricing, especially as UPS announces its holiday peak season surcharges. These new charges come in addition to similar costs in place the past few months. Combined, it is a difficult environment to manage surcharges.

For example, a parcel carrier may announce a general rate increase of 4.9%, but this is an average taken across all services, weight breaks, and zones. In reality, many rate increases are above 6% when applied to a shipper’s actual volume. 

Predictable by nature, these annual increases are usually baked into the “cost of doing business” for shippers, many of which understand that the GRI impact on their transportation rates is at least an increase of about 5% annually. 

Now, carriers are introducing accessorial surcharges at different times throughout the year in response to seasonal demand swings and business peaks. These unexpected peak season surcharges can be difficult to manage, especially during a global pandemic when dynamic shifts are occurring across the marketplace. 

Here are four things all shippers should know about peak season surcharges in 2020.

  1. Peak Season Surcharges Becoming Routine It pays to stay on top of these variations and respond accordingly. Companies that take proactive measures to offset pending surcharges are often best positioned to maintain profitability, protect their bottom lines, and keep their customers happy (and coming back for more).

    Alongside existing peak surcharges implemented earlier in 2020, UPS announced it will increase surcharges for the holiday season. Starting Nov. 15, surcharges on Ground, SurePost and domestic Air services will increase to between $1 and $4 per package, depending on the shippers’ parcel volume. At a minimum, that triples the increases implemented May 31.
  2. Parcel Carriers Felt the COVID-19 Impact During the traditional holiday season, UPS and FedEx often start hiring up to six months ahead of time. They also require larger shippers to provide volume estimates to support capacity planning. Staffed and trained, the carriers position everyone for success during the busiest time of the year. 

    These proactive moves weren’t possible during the global pandemic, and that’s precisely why the surcharges surfaced quickly in 2020.
  3. Residential Deliveries Bear the Brunt of COVID Surcharges Surcharges surfaced quickly in 2020, with higher costs on residential deliveries and large package shipments to homes and businesses quickly consuming the carriers’ margins. In response, UPS and FedEx implemented peak surcharges for U.S. domestic residential shipments and large/oversize packages due to the increased demand. UPS implemented the new charges on May 31, and FedEx quickly followed on June 8. 

    Not all shippers were caught in this particular surcharge web. Some charges solely affected large shippers with significant increases in residential deliveries compared to their average pre-pandemic weekly volume from Feb. 2 and Feb. 29, 2020.
  4. Advance Peak Season Surcharge Planning Isn’t Easy Budget planning to manage surcharges isn’t easy in an environment where these increases can arise unexpectedly. No one was prepared for the massive impacts of COVID-19, for example, so shippers had little (or no) time to prepare in advance for the surcharges. 

    The good news is that even though individual companies can’t control parcel carriers’ surcharges, they can minimize the budgetary impact with accurate shipping data, experienced logistics partners, and quick responses to carrier announcements. 

Avoid Peak Season Surcharge Shock

As you plan your transportation spend for the remainder of 2020 and into 2021, be sure to factor in the reality of “unexpected” carrier surcharges. It doesn’t take a global pandemic to create peak season pressure on carriers’ profitability and spur added fees on your parcel shipments. At the same time, in the wake of COVID-19, expect significant changes in the last-mile delivery environment, especially in terms of pricing complexity.

Individually, a 30-cent surcharge on a residential parcel shipment may seem innocuous. Multiply that fee across thousands of packages, and it’s clear just how burdensome this unexpected fee can be to a company’s bottom line. 

Remember the proverb: forewarned is forearmed. Prior knowledge of a potential issue will always give you a tactical advantage.

To help you avoid surcharge surprises, we created “Manage the Surge: Avoid Surcharge Shocks, Power Performance.” It explores the how and why behind parcel carriers’ cost-recovery tactics. Read it today for the strategies you need to power a parcel program response that offsets these costs and protects your profit.

Improve E-Commerce Experience Without Sacrificing Profitability

With Amazon commanding 47% of U.S. e-commerce sales and on track to grow its online sales by 20.4% to $282.52 billion, pursuing this formidable opponent makes sense to a lot of companies. Unfortunately, many of them are sacrificing profits in their attempt to compete, with transportation and fulfillment costs consuming a large part of their budgets.

Opportunity or Liability?

In many cases, the risks of racing Amazon have literally turned into liabilities, effectively slowing progress and forcing companies to rethink everything from their online order interfaces, shopping cart conversions, and final-mile/same-day order fulfillment management.

The brick and mortar world has really ramped up its game, but Amazon has conditioned us, as end consumers, that those efforts just are not good enough.

4 Practices to Protect Profitability

The good news is that there are steps that companies can take to improve e-commerce strategies without sacrificing profitability. Here are four that your company can start using today: 

  1. Develop an above-par order fulfillment strategy. Amazon built its order fulfillment strategy around offering choices to its customers. In doing so, it made the online shopping experience all about the customer and his/her decisions. The e-tailer provides high levels of supply chain visibility as shipments move from Point A to Point B, maintains good inventory control, and understands its cost to serve. One good metric to use, when judging the efficiency of your order fulfillment processes, is the “Perfect Order,” or one that is on time, complete, intact, and includes the right shipping paperwork. In an environment where order fulfillment can comprise over 60% of the typical warehouse’s total direct labor, even small gains in this area can lead to profitability improvements
  1. Now, deliver on that strategy (on every order). Not only does shipping have to be free and fast, but if it includes a hovercraft and a promise to get a package to your doorstep within an hour, then all the better. We’re at a point where anything less simply doesn’t meet customer expectations. There’s little (if any) room for error on this step. Retailers that want to convert digital consumers know that competing on price and customer experience just isn’t enough anymore; they have to also be able to compete on speed and choice. Handled improperly, same-day delivery can be a logistical nightmare and major risk for retailers. It’s also a necessary evil for them, and something that they all have to be able to do for at least some of their customers. Making that happen requires locations and/or warehouses positioned close to those buyers; a modification of existing fulfillment procedures; a smart, profitable BOPIS strategy; and ensuring that the right product is in the right place and at precisely the right minute.

  1. Focus on continuous monitoring and improvement. Companies can no longer wait until quarterly review meetings to uncover a problem that happened a month ago. Smart companies use daily scorecards to gather, compare and disseminate meaningful, actionable intelligence (e.g., what products were shipped? How quickly were orders fulfilled? Did we pick all of our orders yesterday? If no, how can we make that up today?). By taking an introspective look at their e-commerce operations and developing metrics based on those results, retailers can adapt faster in a world that demands speed, accuracy and delivery on promises. 
  2. Make the right transportation choices. If your company can’t access data that provides strategy around carrier contract alignment and then facilitates choosing the most economical transportation mode, it’s probably losing money. And, if it’s channeling all of its resources into getting same-day and next-day shipments out the door as quickly as possible − without worrying about whether or not those are the best and most economical decisions − it’s losing even more money. These are huge risks in an era where companies are being forced to go head-to-head with Amazon and Walmart, both of which offer same-day and one-day delivery to 72% and 75% of the total U.S. population, respectively. Retailers should be using technology (i.e., transportation management systems or TMS) to select not only the most economical mode, but also one that meets customers’ delivery expectations. Leveraging transactional audit across all modes, provides companies consolidated, visibility to know the rate they paid, identify service gaps, and improve their ability to make good transportation decisions going forward.

Following these guidelines, companies can effectively improve the e-commerce experience without sacrificing profitability − all while satisfying a lot of happy, repeat customers.

Ready to learn more ways retailers can improve e-commerce performance to satisfy customer demands for service and choice? Download Transportation Insight’s e-commerce guide.

5 Ways to Build an E-Commerce Delivery Engine that Wins

Facing stiff competition from web-based suppliers, e-commerce providers and even traditional companies, retailers must enhance the customer experience by offering variety in delivery options − and all without impacting the cost to the consumer.

In most cases, achieving this balance starts with a modern e-commerce engine that’s supported by a robust transportation and fulfillment approach.

E-commerce delivery is increasingly important to retailers seeking to serve the digital marketplace.

Best Practices Achieve Competitive Advantage

Here are five critical steps for developing an e-commerce transportation and fulfillment plan that goes head-to-head with the e-tailing giants. 

  1. Make your website user friendly. This sounds elemental enough in theory, but in reality, very few companies are doing it. Success in e-commerce starts with a user-friendly interface that doesn’t frustrate customers or send them off to buy from another site. If your online store’s ordering system is cumbersome and difficult to use, no one is going to use it unless they have to. And mobile friendly is vital.
  2. Drive up online checkout rates. The retailer that isn’t boosting online checkout rates will quickly find itself struggling to survive in a sea of companies that have figured out the formula. If you ignore the need to drive down abandonment rates, all of the advertising, marketing and sales efforts in the world won’t help you compete against the likes of Amazon and other large e-tailers. Measure key performance indicators (KPIs) like page views to cart conversions in order to get a gauge on 1) current state, and 2) what you can do to drive those numbers up.
  3. Develop a same-day order fulfillment strategy. Handled improperly, same-day delivery can be a logistical nightmare and major risk for retailers. Although becoming a necessary evil that all retailers must do for at least some of their customers, making that happen requires locations and/or warehouses positioned close to those buyers; a modification of existing fulfillment procedures; and ensuring that the right product is in the right place and at precisely the right minute. Aligning BOPIS strategies with profitability is significantly important when developing same-day order fulfillment.
  4. Factor in parcel, heavy home, and customized deliveries. When it comes to bulky goods that require extra muscle and/or assembly, retailers need to factor in three different scenarios: leaving the box in the entryway of a home or apartment; placing it in the room of choice; or both, plus opening up the box, removing the packaging, and setting up the product(s). Retailers must deliver on some, or all of these, expectations for the end consumer, who is typically willing to pay for those additional services.
  5. Select the best and most economical transportation mode. Retailers don’t always have access to the data that allows them to utilize economical mode selection. Instead, they focus only on getting same-day and next-day shipments out the door as quickly as possible (without worrying about whether or not those are the best and most economical decisions). Retailers should be leveraging carrier contract agreements that align with package characteristics/shipping networks. They should also use technology (i.e., transportation management systems or TMS) to select not only the mode that is most economical and provides tracking visibility, but one that also meets customers’ delivery expectations.

By keeping customers at the center of the conversation, providing visibility to shipments, working to fulfill their needs on every order quickly, and developing a transportation plan that aligns with these goals, smart companies can position themselves as suppliers of choice in today’s competitive e-commerce world. 

Ready to learn more ways retailers can improve e-commerce performance to satisfy customer demands for service and choice? Download Transportation Insight’s e-commerce guide, Managing the Risk of Racing Amazon.

Racing Amazon Parcel: 5 Red Flags for Retailers

In an era where delivery choice and speed are becoming fundamental expectations for everyone, companies across most industries are rethinking how they receive, fulfill, and ship customer orders. Facing stiff competition from web-based suppliers, Amazon parcel shipments, e-commerce providers, and even traditional companies, retailers, distributors, and manufacturers alike are challenged to enhance customer experience by offering variety in delivery options – without impacting the cost to the consumer.

Getting there isn’t easy.

Risks consistently stand in the way of retailers that want and need to deliver the best possible e-commerce experiences for their customers.

Driving Digital Growth and Retail Response

In its 2019 Retail Industry Outlook: Navigating disruption in retail report, Deloitte paints a picture of an industry where the consumer is unquestionably in the driver’s seat. “Consumers realize they can have it all. Today’s digital consumers are increasingly connected, have more access to information, and expect businesses to react to all their needs and wants instantly.”

Operating in an industry that’s in a state of constant disruption, retailers are managing through uncertain times and placing bets on what will separate the winners from the losers. “Those that can synchronize their investments to profitably empower the consumer will likely find themselves on the right side of the tipping point,” Deloitte concludes.

The good news is that the retail industry continues to thrive, with U.S. retail sales expected to rise between 3.8% and 4.4% to more than $3.8 trillion in 2019, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), which credits high consumer confidence, low unemployment, and rising wages for driving these numbers up. The 2019 holiday season should be particularly bright, with Coresight anticipating a 3.5%-4.0% year-over-year increase in U.S. retail sales during November and December.

These positive outlooks present a viable opportunity for retailers that learn how to harness e-commerce and use it to their advantage. For many retailers, getting a piece of that pie will require a good, hard look at the red flags that are slowing down their e-commerce service and putting them out of the running for today’s “want it now” consumer. 

Red Flags that Slow the E-Commerce Profit Race

Here are five risks that consistently stand in the way of retailers that want and need to deliver the best possible e-commerce experiences for their customers: 

Risk #1:  Web-based order interfaces. Success in e-commerce starts with a user-friendly interface that doesn’t frustrate customers or send them off to buy from another site. Put simply, if your online store’s ordering system is cumbersome and difficult to use, no one is going to use it unless they have to.  

Risk #2:  Shopping cart conversions. The retailer that isn’t boosting online checkout rates will quickly find itself struggling to survive in a sea of companies that have figured out the formula. Ignore the need to drive down abandonment rates and all of the advertising, marketing, and sales efforts in the world won’t help you compete against the likes of Amazon and other large e-tailers.   

Risk #3: Same-day order fulfillment. Retailers that want to convert digital consumers know that competing on price and customer experience just isn’t enough anymore; they have to also be able to compete on speed. Handled improperly, same-day delivery can be a logistical nightmare and major risk for retailers. It’s also a necessary evil for them, and something that they all have to be able to do for at least some of their customers.     

Risk #4:  Parcel, heavy home, and customized delivery platforms. When it comes to bulky goods that require extra muscle and/or assembly, retailers need to factor in three different scenarios: leaving the box in the entryway of a home or apartment; putting it in the room of choice; or doing both of these plus opening up the box, removing the packaging, and setting up the product(s). With delivery on demand becoming increasingly prevalent, giving the customer scheduling control and providing reliable service further enhances customer experience.

Risk #5:  Selecting the best, most economical transportation mode. Often retailers don’t have access to the data that allows them to utilize more economical mode selection. Instead, many focus solely on getting same-day and next-day shipments out the door as quickly as possible without worrying about whether or not those are the best and most economical decisions. This is a huge risk in an era where companies are being forced to go head-to-head with Amazon and Walmart, both of which offer same-day and one-day delivery to 72%-75% of the total U.S. population, respectively.   

The retailer that understands the transportation risks that exist in the race against Amazon are positioned to proactively mitigate them in today’s disruptive selling environment. These organizations will be best positioned to not only maintain market share, but to also prepare itself for what’s coming around the next corner. 

Ready to learn more about the risks facing retailers on the e-commerce front and how to solve them? Download Transportation Insight’s e-commerce guide, Managing the Risk of Racing Amazon.